1.33 expected goals. Five actual ones. Somebody forgot to tell Sweden that the numbers were supposed to matter.
Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1 at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Mexico, on June 15, 2026, in their Group F opener at the World Cup. Yasin Ayari scored twice, either side of strikes from Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, and substitute Mattias Svanberg, while Omar Rekik’s header was Tunisia’s only reply in a match Sweden won by four goals while generating barely more than one of expected value.
Final score 5-1. Ayari opened the scoring in the 7th minute and closed it in the 6th minute of stoppage time. Isak scored in the 30th, Rekik replied for Tunisia in the 43rd, and Gyokeres made it 3-1 in the 59th before Svanberg added a fourth just 18 seconds after coming off the bench in the 84th. Sweden finished with 1.33 expected goals to Tunisia’s 0.28, numbers that make the scoreline look almost accidental.
Sweden started fast, and the opener arrived from outside the box rather than inside it.
Ayari struck from 28 yards in the 7th minute, rifling a shot beyond Mouhib Chamakh after Gyokeres’ initial effort was blocked in the build-up. Tunisia, who had conceded nothing across an entire qualifying campaign, found themselves behind before they had settled into the match at all.
Isak doubled the lead in the 30th minute, cutting inside off a flowing counterattack and finding the far corner with Chamakh badly misjudging his dive. Tunisia pulled one back just before the break, Rekik rising to head home a Hannibal Mejbri cross in the 43rd minute, and for a moment it looked like the contest might actually become one.
Here’s the thing Sweden never let it become one for long.
Gyokeres made it 3-1 in the 59th minute after Isak pounced on a dawdling Ellyes Skhiri in possession and slid the ball through for a finish that needed no real composure at all, just space and time that Tunisia had simply handed over.
Then came the moment that will be remembered long after the scoreline fades.
Svanberg came on in the 84th minute and scored with his very first touch, a deflected strike from Isak’s backheel that took just 18 seconds to register, the second-fastest goal by a substitute in World Cup history. An initial offside flag was overturned by VAR after replays showed Isak’s touch had played him back onside.
Ayari completed his brace in the sixth minute of stoppage time, pouncing on a turnover from substitute Ismael Gharbi and curling another effort from distance past a helpless Chamakh. It was Sweden’s fifth goal of the night, and arguably the cleanest finish of the bunch.
Rani Khedira picked up a yellow card in the 54th minute as Tunisia’s frustration mounted against a team that kept scoring without really needing to dominate.
Sweden have not kept a clean sheet in ten straight competitive matches, and on this evidence they did not need one. Five goals from 1.33 expected is not a performance. It is a heist, conducted in broad daylight, with everyone watching.