Nine men short, one goal up, and ninety minutes to survive. Paraguay had a plan at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on June 20, 2026. Losing Miguel Almiron to a red card in first-half stoppage time was not part of it.
Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 in their 2026 World Cup Group D match at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, on June 20, 2026. Matias Galarza scored in the second minute, converting after a flick-on from Julio Enciso. Almiron was sent off in the third minute of first-half stoppage time following a VAR review, dismissed for covering his mouth while speaking to Mert Muldur. Turkey finished with an xG of 2.17 from 32 shots. Orlando Gil made five saves to keep them out.
Turkey are eliminated. They go home with zero points, two defeats, and a 2.17 xG total that amounts to the saddest kind of statistic: very good at creating, completely unable to finish.
Everyone will say Almiron’s red card decided this match. That reading is too simple. Turkey had a 13th-minute chance for Arda Guler worth 0.19 xG before the red card. They had Muldur’s header hit both the crossbar and the post in the 35th minute. They were not finding it easy even when it was eleven against eleven. Almiron’s dismissal gave them an excuse. It did not create their problem.
Strip away the noise and the real story here is Turkey’s wastefulness in front of goal. Hakan Calhanoglu had a 0.14 xG chance saved at close range in the 57th minute. Deniz Gul headed unmarked into the goalkeeper’s hands in the 63rd. In the 89th minute, Gul missed the rebound from eight yards out after Gil had stopped Can Uzun’s shot. That rebound chance was worth 0.44 xG. That is not a near miss. That is a gift returned unopened.
Paraguay settled quickly and took their lead before the atmosphere at Levi’s had even properly formed. Enciso received the ball on the right, flicked it into the channel, and Galarza ran onto it and fired low into the bottom-right corner from 28 yards with his left foot. The xG on that shot was 0.03. Paraguay’s only goal of the match was one of the least likely things that happened all afternoon. That is the kind of day this was.
After the red card, Turkey owned the ball. Possession finished at 78 percent, which is the sort of number you see when one team spends an hour and a half knocking it around desperately looking for a way through a compact block. Paraguay sat in two banks of four, barely left their own half, and trusted Gil and their defenders to do the rest. Gil did not let them down. He saved from Calhanoglu, from Gul, from Uzun, and from Bardakci, finishing with five saves against an xGOT of 0.67. His goalkeeping prevented well over two goals on expected metrics.
Here’s the thing Turkey created four big chances and missed all four. Paraguay created none and scored once. Both of those things are completely true.
Vincenzo Montella sent on Baris Alper Yilmaz at half-time for Kerem Aktürkoglu and brought Gul and Uzun on at the hour mark. Each change added effort. None added the composure needed to finish. Demiral headed over in the 80th minute from close range. Muldur sent a header wide from nine yards in the 78th. Demiral rose again in the 97th minute from a Guler cross and sent it inches past the post. The stadium was breathless, then deflated, then silent.
Turkey are done. Two defeats, one goal scored all tournament, and a squad that looked capable of much more on paper. Montella said afterward that he would not criticize his players, which is generous, but at some point someone has to say that five saves from the opposition goalkeeper and five missed big chances is not a story of bad luck. That is a finishing problem. It existed before this tournament, and it followed them here.
Almiron gets his red card. Turkey get their exit. Paraguay get three points and a genuine chance of reaching the round of 32. And somewhere, a 35-year-old midfielder sits in a dressing room knowing that a whispered word into his palm, whatever it contained, ended his World Cup in the third minute of stoppage time in the first half.
That is a hard way to remember a career. He deserved better than that ending, even if the card, technically, was earned.